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Declining momentum in 2025
UBS has initiated coverage of Bénéteau with a "Neutral" recommendation and a target price of 9 euros. With the share currently trading at 8.22 euros, the Swiss bank expects the short-term economic climate to be unfavorable. Massive destocking by distributors and sluggish demand are weighing on business. UBS forecasts annual sales of ?880 million, below the Group's target of ?0.9 to ?1 billion.
Declining margins
Profitability is also affected: EBIT margin is expected to fall to 2.8%, from 7.3% in 2024. This decline reflects the scissor effect between falling volumes and a still-rigid cost structure. UBS points out that visibility of a recovery in demand remains low, and that no clear catalyst has been identified at this stage.
Recovery expected from 2026
Despite the current unfavorable environment, the bank remains attentive to the medium-term outlook. The launch of 66 new models between 2025 and 2027 could revive market interest. As a result, UBS anticipates a return to double-digit organic growth as early as 2026, thanks to the attenuation of destocking effects.
Bénéteau is aiming for sales of ?1.5 billion by 2028, but UBS considers this forecast too optimistic. Instead, it has set a target of ?1.16 billion. Similarly, the company's hoped-for adjusted EBIT margin of 10% is reduced to 7.5% by UBS, which points out that such a performance has only been achieved twice in twenty years.
Sound financial fundamentals
In terms of valuation, the target price of 9 euros is based on a multiple of 6x EV/EBIT for 2026 and a discounted cash flow model. UBS believes that the current price is a fair reflection of the company's short-term difficulties. However, a bullish scenario with a more rapid recovery could lift the share price to 13 euros.
Despite this period of turbulence, UBS stresses that Bénéteau has a positive net cash position. The bank nevertheless expects the Group to maintain this position as a priority, reducing the room for maneuver for external growth operations or significant returns to shareholders.
